The invention provides a satellite adaptive coded modulation (ACM) method based on channel quality prediction. The satellite adaptive coded modulation method comprises the steps that: a satellite end utilizes a signal-to-noise ratio feedback result combined with an LMS algorithm to complete prediction of a signal-to-noise ratio of a channel periodically; the satellite end replaces a feedback value with a signal-to-noise ratio predicted value for carrying out ACM transmission of DVB-S2X after the LMS algorithm is stable; optimization subset ACM adjustment is carried out when predicted values of SNR fall into a range from 5 to 5dB n times continuously; and the satellite end quits optimization subset ACM and returns to the traditional ACM in the DVB-S2X when predicted values of SNR fall out of a range from 5 to 5dB m times continuously. The satellite adaptive coded modulation (ACM) method overcomes time delay problem of a feedback link, effectively reduces feedback frequency through channel prediction, avoids the problem that quality of the feedback link is not good or ACM is not matched due to large time delay, and can switch to corresponding modulation coding rapidly in a rain attenuation mode.