The present invention discloses a large-scale wind power capacity short-term nondeterminacy rapid discrimination method. The method comprises the following steps: 1) predicating the capacity value and the real capacity value of each blower fan w in an electric power system A before the moment t, and obtaining the wind power capacity predication error of the wind power in the electric power system A at the moment t so as to obtain a large-scale wind power capacity short-term nondeterminacy distribution function expression; and 2) furthering simplifying the [Gamma] value and the [Eta] value in the linear function, and obtaining a simplified large-scale wind power capacity short-term nondeterminacy rapid discrimination mode. The method can rapidly and effectively obtain accurate large-scale wind power capacity predication error distribution condition, is small in workload and short in time consumption, and provides a large-scale wind power capacity short-term nondeterminacy rapid discrimination tool for the scheduling and the operation of the electric power system and controlling personnel.