The invention discloses a low-permeability heavy-oil reservoir horizontal well thermal recovery pressure distribution prediction method. The method includes the following steps that: a starting pressure gradient-horizontal well shaft radial distance relational expression is established; a horizontal well temperature field variable pressure gradient distribution model is established based on a conformal transformation principle; and horizontal well thermal recovery pressure distribution prediction is carried out based on the starting pressure gradient-horizontal well shaft radial distance relational expression and the temperature field variable pressure gradient distribution model. According to the method of the invention, a horizontal well thermal recovery temperature field variable seepage mode is established, the maximum oil drainage radius of the thermal recovery of a low-mobility block is determined, and therefore, a theoretical basis can be provided for the optimization of reasonable development modes, well patterns and well distances.