The invention provides a user track forecasting-based switching method and device for an unmanned aerial vehicle-borne base station. The switching method comprises the following steps: when a mobile terminal enters an overlapping coverage region of the current unmanned aerial vehicle-borne base station and an unmanned aerial vehicle-borne base station to be selected, determining historical track points of the mobile terminal and track points of the current position as an input set of a forecasting model; calculating expected track points with the forecasting model based on a regression forecasting method in machine learning; judging whether first expected RSRP (Reference Signal Received Power) and second expected RSRP of the expected track points meet a mobile communication switching judgement standard or not according to a preset calculation formula; if YES, switching the mobile terminal from a current service cell to a service cell to be selected. By the application of the user track forecasting-based switching method, quick judgment whether to perform cell switching on the mobile terminal or not can be realized quickly, and the communication quality of a user is guaranteed.