The invention provides a metro contact line abrasion distribution prediction method and a maintenance method, which are used for solving the problem that the metro contact line abrasion distribution cannot be accurately predicted in the prior art. According to the contact line abrasion distribution prediction method and the maintenance method, a contact line abrasion rate calculation simplification model is established, contact line abrasion distribution is predicted according to the simplification model, and a maintenance strategy is formulated in a targeted mode on the basis of prediction. According to the invention, wear mechanism analysis is carried out; establishing a contact line wear rate calculation model from the perspective of a wear mechanism; actual bow net current and drivingspeed are combined. The abrasion distribution of the contact line is calculated and analyzed by the contact force and the like, the abrasion degrees of the contact line at different positions are intuitively reflected, an advanced estimation and differential maintenance method for the abrasion of the contact line is provided, and the method has important significance for reducing the maintenance cost and improving the safety performance of the contact line of the rigid contact network.