The present invention addresses the problem of providing an aqueous dispersion which allows formation of a coating film having excellent coloring stability, a production method for the aqueous dispersion, an aqueous coating material, and a coated article. This aqueous dispersion contains water, a surfactant, and a fluorinated polymer, the fluorinated polymer being dispersed in the water. The aqueous dispersion is characterized in that the fluorinated polymer contains a unit based a fluoroolefin, and a unit based on a monomer having a hydrophilic group, and the surfactant is a compound having astructure in which one group represented by formula -(OQ)nOSO3 -X+ and 2-4 phenyl alkyl groups are bonded to a benzene ring (where Q represents an alkylene group having 2-4 carbon atoms, n representsan integer of 2-48, and X+ represents Na+ or NH4 +).