In general, techniques are described for monitoring health of a head in a magnetic data storage drive. A health controller may be configured to receive multi-variate sensor signals indicative of a respective reference value at least one head parameter, wherein the respective reference value is based in part on at least one initial measurement of parameters of the head obtained at a first time, determine a respective predicted current value based at least in part on a respective fixed-drift model and the multi-variate sensor signals, determine a respective actual current value that is based at least in part on at least one current measurement of the head obtained at a second time later than the first time, determine a health status for the head, and store the health status in memory.