A disclosed method is performed at a system configured to distribute segment instances corresponding to segments of a media item. The method includes receiving, from a client device, a first segment request including data indicative of a first set of segments of the media item and data indicative of a first bitrate. The method further includes transmitting, to the client device in response to the first segment request, a first set of segment instances, each of the first set of segment instances including data encoding a respective one of the first set of segments at the first bitrate. The method includes generating, in response to the first segment request, a first prediction indicative of a first predicted set of segment instances, each of the first predicted set of segment instances including data encoding a segment of the media item subsequent to the first set of segments at one of a plurality of predicted bitrates.