A method for controlling temperature in a thermal zone within a building, comprising: using a processor, receiving a desired temperature range for the thermal zone; determining a forecast ambient temperature value for an external surface of the building proximate the thermal zone; using a predictive model for the building, determining set points for a heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (“HVAC”) system associated with the thermal zone that minimize energy use by the building; the desired temperature range and the forecast ambient temperature value being inputs to the predictive model; the predictive model being trained using respective historical measured value data for at least one of the inputs; and, controlling the HVAC system with the set points to maintain an actual temperature value of the thermal zone within the desired temperature range for the thermal zone.