A host vehicle receives remote vehicle spatial state information for a remote vehicle and identifies vehicle transportation network information representing a portion of a transportation network based on that information. At least one initial probability value is generated based on comparing the spatial state information and the transportation network information at an initial time point, each initial probability value indicating a likelihood that the remote vehicle is following a lane within the transportation network. A deviation between adjacent values for the spatial state information relative to the transportation network information is generated for a plurality of time points. For each single lane and deviation, the likelihood that the remote vehicle is following the lane using a new probability value based on the deviation is updated, a trajectory using the updated likelihood is generated, and the host vehicle traverses the transportation network using the transportation network information and trajectory.