In an embodiment, a data processing method providing an improvement in computer efficiency in transmitting data poll messages to another computer, the method comprising: using a first computer, transmitting a first plurality of data poll messages to a second computer, receiving event data from the second computer, and storing the event data in event history storage; based upon the event data in the event history storage, calculating a first estimate of a probability of a particular event occurring in a first specified time period; in response to determining that the first estimate is greater than 0, calculating a total number of times to check for the same particular event in the same specified time period; based upon the event data in the event history storage, calculating a second estimate of a probability distribution of the same particular event during the same specified time period; creating and storing a schedule of a plurality of times at which to transmit a second plurality of data poll messages to the second computer, based upon dividing the specified time period by the second estimate; transmitting the second plurality of data poll messages to the second computer at the plurality of times specified in the schedule, receiving responsive event data from the second computer, and updating the event history storage using the responsive event data; wherein the method is performed using one or more computing devices.