Systems, devices, and methods are described for providing loudspeaker protection. An upstream loudspeaker model estimation component receives sensed electrical characteristics of a loudspeaker and generates an impedance model from which an excursion model, and associated parameters, of the loudspeaker as well as a gain change parameter may be generated. The impedance components are fitted to features of an estimated impedance, based on the voltage and current sense data, to generate the estimated impedance model that is converted to an excursion model of the loudspeaker. A downstream audio signal processing component, based on the excursion model, or parameters thereof, limits a predicted excursion of the loudspeaker utilizing excursion-constraining processing circuitry that includes a non-linear constraint filter. Processed audio signals associated with the limited excursion are subject to distortion suppression prior to releasing the output audio signals for playback on the loudspeaker.