A system includes an engine, a transmission driven by the engine, and a controller. The controller is configured to receive a speed input, receive feedback indicative of a load of the engine at a current engine speed, compare the load to a predetermined load threshold at the current engine speed, determine an expected engine speed based at least on the current engine speed, a current gear ratio, and an expected gear ratio, determine an estimated engine power at the expected engine speed and a current engine power at the current engine speed, and command a gear downshift when the load is greater than or equal to the predetermined load threshold and when the estimated engine power is greater than the current engine power.