Methods and systems are provided herewith for creating and managing wagers on possible states or outcomes within a live event, such as outcomes of at-bats, innings, and other subparts of a sporting event or other event. An initial state and multiple possible future states of a performance parameter of the event may be determined based on state information of the event. A betting market may be created based on probabilities and odds determined for the possible future states. The betting market may be closed at a time after bets are received and before an end of an initial state. A payout may be made to a winner who selected the correct outcome of the performance parameter.