A system for managing application performance performs a learning phase and a monitoring phase. One embodiment of the learning phase comprises monitoring performance of multiple components of a software system to create first monitored component data for the multiple components and automatically identifying correlation between the components and a performance metric based on the first monitored data. The monitoring phase comprises monitoring performance of the multiple components of the software system to create second monitored component data for the multiple components, using the identified correlation to predict the performance metric, calculating the actual performance metric based on the second monitored component data, and reporting a performance problem if the actual performance metric differs from the predicted performance metric by more than a threshold.