Various managed pressure drilling tools, systems, and methods are disclosed. An example method includes obtaining a model-based pressure prediction and sensor-based pressure measurements during borehole drilling operations. The method also includes determining a real-time learning calculation using the model-based pressure prediction and at least some of the sensor-based pressure measurements. The method also includes updating a formation pressure model based at least in part on the real-time learning calculation. The method also includes controlling annular pressure for the borehole drilling operations based on a pressure predicted by the updated formation pressure model.