How to model risk on your farm
Abstract:
This is an invention implying a risk management method based on synthetic data. Synthetic data are random variables that take their mean and standard deviation from experimental data. It reproduces the experimental data underlying statistic information with a statistical confidence of 99%. Experimental data could represent financial variables i.e., prices and quantities. This method implements alternative recursive bias approach that achieve convergence with related estimations already published. Also, this method is decomposable allowing synthetic data and econometric models parameter values and different risk scenarios alternatives in order to measure the system responses under different controls.
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