Disclosed herein is a method for diagnosing a renal allograft recipient's risk for developing fibrosis of the allograft and allograft loss. The method includes determining the expression levels of certain microRNAs, which have been determined to be predictive of an allograft recipient's risk. Also disclosed herein is a method of treating a renal allograft recipient to inhibit fibrosis of the allograft and allograft loss, as well as kits for use in the methods disclosed herein.