In one embodiment, a device in a network monitors Ethernet virtual private network (EVPN) traffic in the network for a plurality of media access control (MAC) addresses. The device generates a machine learning-based traffic model for the MAC addresses based on the monitored EVPN traffic. The device determines a timeout for a particular one of the MAC addresses based on traffic predicted by the machine learning-based traffic model for the particular MAC address. The device causes the particular MAC address to be timed out from one or more forwarding tables in the network based on the determined timeout.