A non-volatile storage apparatus includes a set of non-volatile memory cells and one or more control circuits in communication with the set of non-volatile memory cells, the one or more control circuits are configured to collect failure bit counts (FBCs) for data read from the set of non-volatile memory cells, obtain one or more metrics of a cumulative distribution of the FBCs, calculate an indicator from the one or more metrics of the cumulative distribution of the FBCs and a target FBC, obtain a probability for the target FBC from the indicator, and manage at least one of: garbage collection, wear leveling, and read threshold voltage adjustment of the set of non-volatile memory cells according to the probability for the target FBC.