A system and method that automatically detects that a regression incident has occurred, and identifies the particular revision(s) of source code that introduced the regression incident is disclosed herein. The system and method execute one or more simulations of each revision in a window of revisions of the source code to compute values for one or more metrics. The metric values are then used to compute regression confidence values as well as a regression confidence interval—to then detect a regression incident and identify the revision that caused the regression incident. The system and method can also identify subsequent revision(s) that sufficiently fix regression incident(s) caused by a revision such that a software developer can be informed of these fixing revisions.