A retail shrinkage activity prediction and identification system that includes: a sensor control system, a first shrinkage database, a second shrinkage database, an analytics engine, and a machine learning engine. The sensor control system is communicatively coupled with a plurality of sensors arranged in a retail environment. The sensor control system is configured to control a setting of each of the plurality of sensors. The first shrinkage database includes retail shrinkage data for at least the retail environment. The retail shrinkage data includes at least one item at high risk for shrinkage or at least one time at high risk for shrinkage activity. The second shrinkage database includes external data related to shrinkage in a geographic area of the retail environment. The analytics engine is communicatively coupled with the first shrinkage database, the second shrinkage database, and the sensor control system.