Systems, methods, and other embodiments associated with forecasting customer channel choice using cross-channel loyalty are described. In one embodiment, a method includes accessing historical values for each of one or more loyalty variables for respective customers. The method also includes determining respective loyalty variable predictors for each of the one or more loyalty variables for each customer based on the historical values. In response to a trigger event associated with a given customer, the loyalty variable predictors for the customer are used to estimate a present value of each of the one or more loyalty variables for the customer. The present value of each of the loyalty variables is input to a forecast model that calculates, for each channel, a probability that the customer will make a purchase using the channel. The purchase probabilities are provided for use in selecting a marketing message for the customer.