Methods, systems, and computer program products for determining a personalized advertisement channel are provided herein. A computer-implemented method includes processing multiple data sources associated with a user based on data derived from multiple notification messages accessed via an operating system feature of a mobile device of the user; determining a current state in connection with a product and/or service based on said processing, wherein said current state comprises a current likelihood that the user will purchase the product and/or service; computing probabilities, conditioned on each of multiple advertisement media, that the user will transition from a first state to a second state based on said processing; and identifying one of the advertisement media to implement with the product and/or service to transition the user from the current state to a separate user state, wherein said identifying is based on (i) the current state and (ii) the multiple computed probabilities.