Provided are systems, machines, non-transitory computer medium having computer program instructions stored thereon, and computer-implemented methods for providing a premium for a supplemental crop insurance policy. The methods include identifying policy information for the policy (including a crop type, expected yield, a selected coverage level, and one or more discovery periods), generating simulated potential price trajectories for the crop type over a given time period that includes the one or more discovery periods, determining simulated prices based on the simulated potential price trajectories, generating simulated correlated price-yield realizations for the crop type over the given time period, determining simulated yields based on the simulated correlated price-yield realizations, determining a premium rate as a function of the expected yield, the selected coverage level, the simulated prices and the simulated yields, and providing the premium rate for use in determining a premium amount for the policy.