Systems and techniques for determining a total predicted index fragmentation associated with executing a structured query language statement are described. An execution plan associated with the structured query language statement may be determined. A plurality of tables estimated to be affected by execution of the structured query language statement may be determined. For individual tables, an estimated number of rows that the structured query language statement is to affect may be determined. A predictive model, such as a support vector machine, may be used to determine, for individual tables whose indexes are estimated to be affected, a predicted change in an average index fragmentation percentage associated with individual indexes on the affected tables. The sum of the predicted change in the average index fragmentation percentage of affected indexes may be determined to determine the total predicted index fragmentation associated with executing the structured query language statement.