The subject disclosure relates to systems and methods for calculating a peak consumption threshold, and for using the peak consumption threshold to determine the likelihood of future peak resource consumption events. In some aspects, methods of the subject technology include steps for receiving resource consumption data for a plurality of utility customers, wherein the resource consumption data comprises an indication of an amount of electric power used by each of the plurality of utility customers, and calculating, using the one or more processors, a plurality of consumption averages for the resource consumption data. In some aspects, the method can further include steps for calculating a peak consumption threshold based on the consumption values for the resource consumption data.