According to certain embodiments, a system comprises a controller and an HVAC system with components comprising an evaporator unit comprising an evaporator coil, an indoor fan, and a discharge air duct and a condenser unit comprising a compressor, a condenser coil, and an outdoor fan. The system is configured to determine that a first or a second level of evaporator coil freeze risk is present and to communicate an instruction to the HVAC system with a first or a second action to counteract the freeze risk. For example, in certain embodiments, the actions comprise changing the indoor fan speed, changing the compressor speed, and changing the outdoor fan speed.