In one embodiment, a method includes sending videos to users that use a video delivery service. The videos include shows that have episodes released sequentially. The method records historical records of video views for the video based on the sending of the videos to the users. For a show, a show-specific model is determined to predict future video views by performing: determining historical records of video views for different episodes of the show; training the show-specific model with the historical records, wherein the show-specific model models a decay curve with a regularizing term to regularize a decay speed; using the show-specific model to predict future video views for a future time range for episodes of the show; and outputting the future video views to an ad system configured to sell ads for the show.