In an embodiment, the techniques herein include receiving a request for a suggested distribution rate of a particular field-distributed commodity in a particular geographical area. Based on that request, two or more rate models for distribution of the particular field-distributed commodity are computed, where one rate model is a user-tolerance model. The suggested distribution rate of the particular field-distributed commodity is determined by performing Bayesian updating where the user-tolerance model is treated as a prior distribution and distributions for each of the other rate models of the two or more rate models for distribution of the particular field-distributed commodity in the particular geographical area are treated as input data in the Bayesian updating. The determined suggested distribution rate of the particular field-distributed commodity is then sent in response to the received request.