Disclosed herein are systems and methods of individual level learning that include receiving purchase event data from a merchant device that indicates that a purchase event occurred by a user on a user device, and transmitting the purchase event data to an analytics server. The methods may also include processing the purchase event data. The processing may include calculating a time gap for each of two sequential purchase events in a list of purchase events, and calculating an average duration of consecutive events by averaging all of the purchase events in the list of purchase events. The method may determine a purchase hazard probability that a purchase event will occur on a given day, when the average duration of consecutive events is larger than a standard deviation of the event occurring. When the purchase hazard probability is above a threshold, the system may push a message to the user device.