Methods and systems are provided for determining a dilution of recirculated gases, including blowthrough air, combusted exhaust gas, and fuel vapor, in a split exhaust engine. In one example, the dilution rate may be calculated using a feedforward model that includes determining a pressure differential across a region in an intake passage, mapped engine parameters such as gas temperature, and exhaust valve timing. Engine operations such as spark advance and fuel injection may be adjusted according to the modeled rate to reduce engine knock and improve combustion efficiency.