A method for dispatching buildings, including: generating data sets, each having energy values along with corresponding time and outside temperature values, wherein the energy values are shifted by one of a plurality of lag values relative to the corresponding time and outside temperature values; performing a non-linear parabolic analysis on the each of the data sets; determining a least valued residual that indicates a corresponding energy lag for each of the buildings, the corresponding energy lag describes a transient energy consumption period preceding a change in outside temperature; using outside temperatures, model parameters, and energy lags for all of the buildings to estimate a cumulative energy consumption for the buildings, and to predict a dispatch order reception time for the demand response program event; and employing the dispatch order reception time to prepare actions required to control the each of the buildings to optimally shed energy specified in a dispatch order.