Methods and systems that reduce off-track write retry operations in shingled magnetic recording systems. In one implementation, the method includes writing data to an initial track, determining which side of the initial track is a shingled side, calculating a percentage of position error signal (PES) at a shingled side end of the initial track (PES1) when an off-track write operation occurs, determining whether the PES1 meets a first pre-determined threshold, continue writing data to a second track responsive to determining the PES1 is below a first pre-determined threshold, calculating a percentage of PES at a shingled side end of the second track (PES2), determining whether a combined value of PES1 and PES2 is above a second predetermined threshold to determine a probability value of the initial track being erased, and continue writing to a third track if the combined value is below the second predetermined threshold.