Methods, systems, and apparatus, including computer programs encoded on a computer storage medium, for predictive modeling for adjusting initial values are disclosed. In one aspect, a method includes the actions of accessing transaction history data that indicates one or more transaction details associated with the transaction, a predicted value, and a final value. The actions further include determining a difference value between the predicted value and the final value. The actions further include generating a predictive model that is trained to estimate. The actions further include receiving one or more transaction details and a predicted value associated with a subsequently received transaction. The actions further include providing the one or more transaction details as input to the predictive model. The actions further include receiving an adjustment value to apply to the predicted value. The actions further include providing, for output, data indicating the adjustment value.