According to one embodiment, an image forming apparatus includes an image carrier, an exposing apparatus, a developing device, a transfer device, a fixing device, a history acquisition unit, an estimation unit, and an output unit. The exposing device exposes the image carrier to form an electrostatic latent image on the image carrier. The developing device includes a layer forming member to form a toner layer on a developing roller and forms a toner image by developing the electrostatic latent image. The transfer device transfers the toner image to a sheet. The fixing device fixes the toner image to the sheet. The history acquisition unit acquires a history regarding a temperature around the developing device. The estimation unit estimates a possibility that an image defect caused by the layer formation may occur on the basis of the history. The output unit outputs estimation results of the estimation.