A system and method for generating, based on optical network topology information, an optical model to represent an optical network; provisioning a new optical connection within the optical network: determining, using the optical model, a first bit error rate (BER) of the new optical connection; determining, using the optical network providing the new optical connection, a second BER of the new optical connection; determining, based on the first and the second BER, a BER excursion parameter of the new optical connection; training a margin allocator based on the BER excursion parameter of the new optical connection, and the first BER of the new optical connection; comparing the first BER of the new connection and a required optical margin to a threshold to determine a reliability of the new optical connection; and allocating, using the margin allocator, the required optical margin for additional optical connections of the optical network.