A method for determining the tail performance of an integrated circuit is described. The method includes simulating the integrated circuit over samples to obtain values for circuit specifications and sorting the circuit specifications based on an expected number of samples. The method also includes arranging a sequence of samples from the universe according to a sequence in the group of circuit specifications, simulating the integrated circuit with one of the sequence of samples to obtain at least one circuit specification, removing the at least one circuit specification from the group when it satisfies the stop criterion, and modifying a model for a second circuit specification based on the at least one circuit specification. The computer-implemented method also includes reordering the group of circuit specifications based on the model and determining an integrated circuit performance based on a simulation result for the at least one circuit specification.