A system for automated model-based drilling includes a plurality of surface-based sensors configured to sense one or more rig parameters in real-time, a hydraulic modeler unit configured to generate a real-time model of an equivalent circulating density based on one or more rig parameters, a control module configured to continually determine whether the equivalent circulating density is within pre-determined safety margins of a safe pressure window, and a forward parameters simulator configured to, while the equivalent circulating density is within the pre-determined safety margins of the safe pressure window, determine an optimal drilling parameter to change and an optimal drilling parameter amount of change. The control module changes a rig setting corresponding to the optimal drilling parameter to change to the optimal drilling parameter value automatically or outputs the optimal drilling parameter to change and the optimal drilling parameter value to a display for manual adjustment by a driller.