A method, apparatus, and computer program product are disclosed for improved promotion targeting. An example apparatus includes a processor configured to cause retrieval of historical information regarding transactions associated with a plurality of identifier entities. The example apparatus further includes modeling circuitry configured to train a statistical model using the retrieved historical information, and estimate, using the statistical model, values for expected identifier entity transaction requests associated with each of the plurality of identifier entities. The processor of the example apparatus may further be configured to select, based on the estimated values, a subset of identifier entities to receive impressions of the promotion, and the apparatus may further include communications circuitry configured to transmit an impression of the promotion to each identifier entity in the subset.