Provided is a computer-implemented method for predicting payment transactions using a machine learning technique that includes receiving transaction data, generating a categorical transaction model based on the transaction data, determining a plurality of prediction scores including determining, for one or more users, a prediction score in each merchant category of a plurality of merchant categories for each predetermined time segment of a plurality of predetermined time segments, where a respective prediction score includes a prediction of whether a user will conduct a payment transaction in a merchant category at a time associated with a predetermined time segment associated with the respective prediction score, determining a recommended merchant category and a recommended predetermined time segment of at least one offer, generating the at least one offer, and communicating the at least one offer to the one or more users. A system and computer program product are also disclosed.