Described is a closed-loop intervention control system for memory consolidation in a subject. During operation, the system simulates memory changes of a first memory in a subject during waking encoding of the memory, and then while the subject is sleeping and coupled to an intervention system. Based on the simulated memory changes, the system predicts behavioral performance for the first memory, the behavioral performance being a probability that the first memory can be recalled on cue. The system can be used to control operation (e.g., turn on or off) of the intervention system with respect to the first memory based on the behavioral performance of the first memory determined by the simulation.