A non-volatile storage apparatus includes a set of non-volatile memory cells and one or more control circuits in communication with the set of non-volatile memory cells. The one or more control circuits are configured to collect failure bit counts (FBCs) for data read from the set of non-volatile memory cells in a first time period and manage the set of non-volatile memory cells according to a probability of occurrence of a target FBC in a second time period that is subsequent to the first time period. The probability of occurrence of the target FBC during the second time period is calculated from a model of FBC distribution change of the set of non-volatile memory cells.