A relational event history is determined based on a data set, the relational event history including a set of relational events that occurred in time among a set of actors. Data is populated in a probability model based on the relational event history, where the probability model is formulated as a series of conditional probabilities that correspond to a set of sequential decisions by an actor for each relational event, where the probability model includes one or more statistical parameters and corresponding statistics. A baseline communications behavior for the relational event history is determined based on the populated probability model, and departures within the relational event history from the baseline communications behavior are determined.