Invention Grant
- Patent Title: Systems and methods for selecting global climate simulation models for training neural network climate forecasting models
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Application No.: US16869496Application Date: 2020-05-07
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Publication No.: US10909446B2Publication Date: 2021-02-02
- Inventor: Matias Castillo Tocornal , Brent Donald Lunghino , Maximilian Cody Evans , Carlos Felipe Gaitan Ospina , Aranildo Rodrigues Lima
- Applicant: ClimateAI, Inc.
- Applicant Address: US CA San Francisco
- Assignee: ClimateAI, Inc.
- Current Assignee: ClimateAI, Inc.
- Current Assignee Address: US CA San Francisco
- Agency: American Patent Agency PC
- Agent Daniar Hussain; Xiaomeng Shi
- Main IPC: G06N3/04
- IPC: G06N3/04 ; G06N3/063 ; G06K9/62 ; G01W1/10 ; G06F30/27

Abstract:
Methods and systems for generating a multi-model ensemble of global climate simulation data from a plurality of global climate simulation models (GCMs), to be used in training a neural network (NN)-based climate forecasting model, are disclosed. The methods and systems perform steps of computing a GCM validation measure for each GCM; selecting a validated subset of the GCMs, by comparing each computed GCM validation measure to a validation threshold determined based on observational historical climate data; computing a forecast skill score for each validated GCM, based on a first forecast function; selecting a validated and skillful subset of GCMs; generating one or more candidate ensembles by combining simulation data from at least two validated and skillful GCMs; computing an ensemble forecast skill score for each candidate ensemble, based on a second forecast function; and selecting a best-scored candidate ensemble. Embodiments of the present invention enable accurate climate forecasting without the need to run new dynamical global climate simulations on supercomputers.
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