Techniques for estimating the impact of new operational conditions in a baseline air traffic scenario are described. For at least one flight, embodiments infer an aircraft intent that fits corresponding flight track data. A reconstructed trajectory is computed using the inferred aircraft intent. For at least one flight in an alternative air traffic scenario, an aircraft intent that fits new operational conditions is generated. The new operational conditions include a new air traffic management operation and a new air traffic procedure, and the generated aircraft intent conforms to the new air traffic management operation and the new air traffic procedure. Embodiments compute a generated trajectory of the at least one flight in the alternative air traffic scenario using the generated aircraft intent and compute trajectory-based analytics on each computed trajectory of the baseline and alternative air traffic scenarios using a set of metrics.