A workload change evaluator may receive workload metrics characterizing a plurality of workloads executed within a license environment during a license period, and cost metrics characterizing license costs incurred by license environment during the license period. A baseline model generator may generate a baseline model providing a time-based contribution of each of the plurality of workloads to the license cost during the license period. A cost estimator may receive a potential workload change, and may estimate a license cost change caused by the potential workload change, based on the baseline model.