Example embodiments provide a system and method for providing optimized channel change using probabilistic modeling. A digital receiver detects an occurrence of a channel event. In response to the detected occurrence, the digital receiver accesses a probabilistic causal model from a data storage device, and dynamically learns in real time one or more probabilities based on the detected channel event and the probabilistic causal model. The digital receiver updates the probabilistic causal model at the data storage device with the learned one or more probabilities. A next channel is determined by the digital receiver based on the updated probabilistic causal model.