A building management system includes HVAC equipment operable to affect an indoor air temperature of a building, a system manager configured to obtain a cost function that characterizes a cost of operating the HVAC equipment, obtain a dataset relating to the building, determine a current state of the building by applying the dataset to a neural network, select a temperature bound associated with the current state, augment the cost function to include a penalty term that increases the cost when the indoor air temperature violates the temperature bound, and determine a temperature setpoint for each of a plurality of time steps in the future time period. The temperature setpoints achieve a target value of the cost function over the future time period. The building management system also includes a controller configured to operate the HVAC equipment to drive the indoor air temperature towards the temperature setpoint.