The disclosed embodiments provide a system for forecasting job applications. During operation, the system applies a first machine learning model to features that include a budget for a job to predict a number of impressions of the job. Next, the system applies a second machine learning model to additional features for the job to estimate an application rate for the job. The system then determines a distribution of applications to the job based on the number of impressions and the application rate. Finally, the system outputs one or more values from the distribution of applications to the job as guidance for setting the budget for the job.